Who Shot Assad's Right Hand Man?

August 16th, 2008

Brigadier General Mohammad Suleiman, a top Syrian military intelligence official, was shot and killed at a beach resort on the Mediterranean coast on August 1st. Suleiman wasn't just any general, he grew up with Assad, was one of his closest advisors and held some of the regime's most sensitive secrets. He was chief of its nuclear facility and its point man in Lebanon.

There are many theories as to who killed Suleiman. Iranian media claims Assad was shot by an Israeli sniper on a yacht off the coast as revenge for his role in supplying arms to Hezbollah duiring the 2006 war. But as Britian's Sky News reported, Israel wouldn't risk killing Suleiman in the midst of indirect peace talks with Assad and experts point out that it would be nearly impossible for even a skilled sniper to hit Suleiman from a yacht bobbing in the water at the distance claimed. Another theory is that Hezbollah killed him as revenge for Syria's assassination of Mughniyeh.

But the two most likely scenarios both make one wonder how in control of his regime Assad really is. The first is that Assad himself had Suleiman killed because he knew too much about the Hariri killing in 2005. If that's the case it demonstrates that Assad has so ineptly handled Syria's affairs that he was forced to murder someone described as his personal mentor and "senior even to the defence minister."

If the second is correct, that Syrian opposition figures inside the regime itself murdered Suleiman as revenge for Assad sacking Shawkat, it makes one wonder if Assad has what it takes to survive. Having overseen the removal of Shawkat for Assad, Suleiman would be a natural target for Assad's opposition. One of his closest allies being murdered on the heals of his sister and brother-in-law's betrayal must not only make Assad feel very unsure of who he can trust but it exposes his inability to maintain the ironclad grip required to maintain power and may encourage yet more opposition. No wonder Syrian authorities were silent about the murder and tried to suppress the news from spreading. Assad may be a dictator but it looks like his attempts to tighten his grip on power haven't inspired the deterring fear he had hoped..